The global transition to electric vehicles (EVs) is reaching major tipping points across many markets. Sales are surging, policy frameworks are evolving. But while many emerging markets are "leapfrogging" straight to electric, some advanced economies risk falling behind.
Here's our stocktake of the key factors shaping the Transport sector and the EV transition in 2026.
One. Emerging EV markets are reshaping who’s leading this transition
The EV transition will keep speeding up in 2026, – but not necessarily where you might think. Emerging markets have been setting the EV mark recently – think nearly 30% of new sales in Uruguay, 40% in Vietnam, an incredible 60% in Ethiopia. 2026 might be the year in which “leapfroggers” – emerging markets that bypass the internal combustion engine and go straight to electric – come out on top as leaders in the global transition. The US is already being outperformed by many; meanwhile European policymakers have taken the foot off the pedal with a watered-down transition to zero-emission vehicles. Will advanced markets be able to keep up with the trend?
One to watch: Rapid electrification of transport in emerging markets. Countries like Kenya and Indonesia advance electrification through solutions that work in their local context, for instance by focussing on two- and three-wheelers.
Two. As EVs hit price parity with petrol and diesel cars, electricity costs are critical
Fleets have long been guided by a clear business case: long-term, it’s cheaper to run your vehicles electric. Increasingly, that’s true for the short-term as well, for both companies and consumers. Upfront costs are coming down, and there’s an increasingly burgeoning second-hand market that is – boosted, in no small part, by fleets like our EV100 members. This is making EVs rapidly more affordable for everyone.
It’s shifting cost concerns however, from purchasing to charging. As EV prices come down, electricity prices – which remain persistently high in markets around the world – can become a direct obstacle to a faster, fairer transition. 2026 will be testing: Can governments cut energy costs, while also investing in the vital grid upgrades that carry the transition?
One to watch: Europe, where medium-sized vehicles will already become cheaper to run than their petrol and diesel counterparts in 2026, according to BEUC analysis.
Three. Markets that get grid modernisation right will have the upper hand
EV charging infrastructure is being built, in impressive ways, in markets around the world (yes, also in the US chargers just keep popping up). A question we’ll see prominently in 2026 is about the infrastructure that underpins this. Will our grids cope with the new demand? Utilities and fleet operators are already flagging opaque and slow grid connection processes, limited capacity, fragmented system planning, and inconsistent permitting processes as major roadblocks.
For heavier vehicles, which need high-power charging at depots or along major transport routes, these hurdles are even higher. 2026 will be the year when many governments will need to take decisive steps on their grids, likely to shape their EV transitions for years to come.
One to watch: The local and the micro. In 2026, we’ll see more focus on depot planning, smart charging, micro grids, and innovative local energy solutions.
Four. Fully electric vehicles will keep outshining plug-in hybrids
Plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) are a bridging technology: useful in the early stages of the transition, as fleets and consumers started to make the switch. This is no longer the case. In fact, many PHEVs pollute way more than advertised, and the plug-in function is often shockingly underused. “They just don’t plug them in,” General Motors CEO Mary Barra admitted this month.
That’s why, when we relaunched the EV100 network last year, a key change was to exclude PHEVs from the EV commitment companies make with us. Essentially combining two systems, they are inferior to fully electric vehicles in every sense. Is 2026 the year this reality hits home in enough markets to cement the global consensus that “fully electric will win the race” (Economist)?
One to watch: Japan remains stubbornly attached to hybrids. As other players across Asia and elsewhere “leapfrog” to fully electric, will the country start looking beyond electric/petrol cars?
Five. Technology is making fleet management smarter – and EVs maximise the benefits
Fleets are getting smarter. Better data is already optimising routing, charging schedules, and maintenance – delivering significant cost savings, improved efficiency, and reduced downtime. Smarter load management at depots and hubs are helping companies deal with volatile power prices and grid constraints. Given the speed with which AI is currently advancing, 2026 will likely see another step-change in how the most forward-looking companies are running their fleets – and those operating EVs are likely to benefit most.
One to watch: Driverless cars. As more markets experiment with self-driving (the UK will run its first trials in 2026), the most innovative fleets will be thinking to integrate this into their smart fleets. Of course: you can only be driverless, if you’re electric.